Central Luzon’s Inflation Increased to 1.6 Percent

The annual inflation rate in Central Luzon rose to 1.6 percent in May 2025. In May 2024, inflation was higher at 4.5 percent. (Figure 1)
 

1.    Headline Inflation

1.1    Main Drivers to the Upward Trend of May 2025 Inflation

The upward trend in the overall inflation in Central Luzon in May 2025 was primarily due to the higher inflation rates in the following commodity groups:
•    Food and non-alcoholic beverages, 2.3 percent from 1.4 percent in April 2025;
•    Clothing and footwear, 1.5 percent from 1.2 percent in April 2025; and
•    Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, 5.6 percent from 5.3 percent in April 2025.

Further, the following commodity groups also contributed to the increase in May 2025 inflation from April 2025:
•    Health, 1.9 percent from 1.7 percent; and
•    Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services, 2.9 percent from 2.8 percent.

Meanwhile, lower annual increments were noted for information and communication recording an inflation rate of 0.2 percent from 0.4 percent and restaurants and accommodation services at 1.0 percent during the month from 1.1 percent in April 2025.

Furthermore, transport index reported faster decline recording -2.7 percent during the month from -2.3 percent in April 2025 while the indices of the rest of the commodity groups retained their respective previous month’s annual growth rates. (Table 1)

1.2 Main Contributors to the May 2025 Inflation
The top three commodity groups contributing to Central Luzon’s overall inflation rate in May 2025 were as follows:

•    Food and non-alcoholic beverages with 0.85 percentage point;
•    Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels with 0.31 percentage point; and
•    Alcoholic beverages and tobacco with 0.26 percentage point. 

2.    Food Inflation

Food inflation in Central Luzon also increased to 2.2 percent in May 2025 from 1.3 percent in April 2025. In comparison, food inflation was notably higher at 5.8 percent in May 2024.

2.1    Main Drivers to the Upward Trend in Food Inflation

The overall uptrend in food inflation for May 2025 was primarily driven by the higher inflation rates in the following:
•    Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses, 6.7 percent from -1.1 percent in April 2025;
•    Fish and other seafood, 9.1 percent from 7.7 percent in April 2025; and 
•    Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals, 8.0 percent from 7.4 percent in April 2025.

Moreover, higher inflation rates during the month were also observed for milk, other dairy products and eggs at 6.7 percent from 5.7 percent in the previous month, oils and fats at 9.6 percent from 8.2 percent in April 2025, and fruits and nuts at 8.3 percent from 6.7 percent in April 2025.

Furthermore, the following food groups recorded slower annual increments in May 2025:

•    Corn, 5.9 percent from 6.8 percent;
•    Flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals, 1.5 percent from 1.8 percent; and
•    Ready-made food and other food products n.e.c., 4.2 percent from 4.4 percent.

Rice registered a faster decline from -13.0 percent in April 2025 to -14.5 percent during the month. Sugar, confectionery and desserts, on the other hand, registered a slower year-on-year decline at -0.2 percent during the month from -0.8 percent in April 2025. (Table 2)
 

2.2    Main Contributors to Food Inflation

Food inflation contributed 0.75 percentage point to the overall inflation in May 2025. The top three food groups in terms of contribution to food inflation during the month were the following:
a. Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals with 1.79 percentage points; 
b. Fish and other seafood with 1.50 percentage points; and 
c. Milk, other dairy products and eggs with 0.57 percentage point.

3.    Inflation by Province in Central Luzon

In May 2025, Pampanga and City of Angeles both registered annual increases of 3.1 percent inflation rates compared to their previous month’s inflation rates. Meanwhile, Bataan, Nueva Ecija and Zambales recorded faster annual increases of 0.5 percent, 0.1 percent, and zero percent during the month from the recorded annual drops of -0.4 percent, -0.8 percent, and -0.9 percent, respectively, in April 2025. On the other hand, Tarlac, Aurora, Bulacan, and City of Olongapo registered slower year-on-year increases in inflation rates. 
Among all provinces and highly urbanized cities (HUCs) in Central Luzon, City of Angeles and Pampanga both recorded the highest inflation at 3.1 percent, followed by City of Olongapo at 2.3 percent. On the contrary, Zambales still has the lowest inflation rate at zero percent in May 2025. (Figure 2)
 

ARLENE M. DIVINO
Regional Director 
PSA RSSO 03