Central Luzon’s Inflation Further Slows Down to 1.3 Percent

The annual inflation rate in Central Luzon further decelerated to 1.3 percent in April 2025. In April 2024, inflation was higher at 4.9 percent. (Figure 1)

1.    Headline Inflation

1.1    Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of April 2025 Inflation

The downward trend in the overall inflation in Central Luzon in April 2025 was primarily due to the slower increase in the index of food and non-alcoholic beverages, which decreased from 3.2 percent in March 2025 to 1.4 percent. Restaurant and accommodation services was the second top contributor in the downward trend in inflation, decreasing to 1.1 percent from 2.1 percent in the previous month. Also contributed to the downtrend was the faster year-on-year decline in the transport index at -2.3 percent during the month from -1.4 percent annual drop in March 2025.

Furthermore, lower annual increments were observed in the indices of the following commodity groups:
•    Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, 2.0 percent from 2.2 percent;
•    Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services, 2.8 percent from 2.9 percent;
•    Clothing and footwear, 1.2 percent from 1.3 percent; and
•    Recreation, sports, and culture, 2.0 percent from 2.2 percent.

In contrast, higher inflation rates were noted in the following commodity groups during the month:
•    Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, 5.3 percent from 5.2 percent;
•    Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels, 1.6 percent from 1.0 percent;
•    Health, 1.7 percent from 1.5 percent; and
•    Information and communication, 0.4 percent from 0.3 percent.

The indices of the rest of the commodity groups retained their respective previous month’s annual growth rates. (Table 1)
 

1.2 Main Contributors to the April 2025 Inflation
The top three commodity groups contributing to the Central Luzon’s overall inflation rate in April 2025 were as follows:

•    Food and non-alcoholic beverages, 1.4 percent inflation with 40.0 percent share or 0.52 percentage point;
•    Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels, 1.6 percent inflation with 24.2 percent share or 0.31 percentage point; and
•    Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, 5.3 percent inflation with 19.2 percent share or 0.25 percentage point. 

2.    Food Inflation

Food inflation in Central Luzon also decelerated to 1.3 percent in April 2025 from 3.2 percent in March 2025. In comparison, food inflation was notably higher at 7.0 percent in April 2024.

2.1    Main Drivers to the Downward Trend in Food Inflation

The overall downtrend in food inflation for April 2025 was primarily driven by the faster year-on-year decline of rice index at -13.0 percent during the month from -9.7 percent in March 2025. This was followed by the slower inflation rates of meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals at 7.4 percent during the month from 10.1 percent in March 2025, and vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses at -1.1 percent in April 2025 from 5.9 percent in the previous month.

Moreover, faster annual increases during the month were observed in the indices of flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals at 1.8 percent from 1.7 percent in the previous month, milk, other dairy products and eggs at 5.7 percent from 4.9 percent in March 2025, and oils and fats at 8.2 percent from 7.2 percent in the previous month.

Furthermore, the following food groups recorded slower annual increments in April 2025:

•    Corn, 6.8 percent from 9.5 percent;
•    Fish and other seafood, 7.7 percent from 8.3 percent;
•    Fruits and nuts, 6.7 percent from 7.2 percent; and
•    Ready-made food and other food products n.e.c, 4.4 percent from 4.7 percent.

Sugar, confectionery and desserts, on the other hand, registered a faster year-on-year decline at -0.8 percent during the month from -0.7 percent in March 2025. (Table 2)

2.2    Main Contributors to Food Inflation

Food inflation shared 44.4 percent or 0.5 percentage point to the overall inflation in April 2025. The top three food groups in terms of contribution to food inflation during the month were the following:
a. Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals with a share of 119.0 percent or 1.5 percentage points; 
b. Fish and other seafood with a share of 93.4 percent or 1.2 percentage points; and 
c. Milk, other dairy products and eggs with a share of 35.1 percent or 0.5 percentage point.

3.    Inflation by Province in Central Luzon

In April 2025, Bulacan and City of Olongapo registered an annual increase of 2.2 percent and 2.5 percent inflation rates, respectively, compared to their previous month’s inflation rates. Meanwhile, Bataan, Nueva Ecija, and Zambales recorded faster annual decelerations during the month.

Among all provinces and highly urbanized cities (HUCs) in Central Luzon, City of Angeles recorded the highest inflation at 2.6 percent, followed by the City of Olongapo at 2.5 percent. On the contrary, Zambales reported the lowest inflation rate at -0.9 percent in April 2025. Furthermore, Pampanga recorded the highest decrease in inflation rate compared with the previous month’s inflation across provinces and HUCs posting a 1.7 percentage points difference.  (Figure 2).

ARLENE M. DIVINO
Regional Director 
PSA RSSO 03